According to an article just released by the Wall Street Journal:
Writing in a client note dated Jan. 8, the bank’s European rates research team said that clients should be concentrating on return of capital, not return on capital, and that an ominous outlook to the world economy “all looks similar to 2008.”
The Key Points
- The note is particularly bearish on China and global commodities, and predicts that oil could fall as low as $16 a barrel.
- In a grim set of predictions, Andrew Roberts, head of European economics, rates & CEEMEA research said that the world has far too much debt to be able to grow well.
- He also warned that advances in technology and automation are set to wipe out up to half of all jobs in the developed world.
- The note says equities could fall 10% to 20%.
- It predicts the year will be spent focusing on how to exit positions that have benefited from long-running QE, including emerging markets, credit and equities.
“The world is slowing, trade is slowing, credit is slowing, we are in a currency war, global disinflation is turning to global deflation as China finally realizes what it needs to do (devalue soon, and sharp) and the U.S. then, against ALL THIS countervailing pressure, then stokes the fire by hiking rates,” Mr. Roberts wrote.
Read the article here.